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Author Topic: Covid-19/Coronavirus - Whence festivals?  (Read 16259 times)
bob_g
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Bob


« on: February 24, 2020, 09:26:30 AM »

Seeing what has happened in Italy the last few days, and increasingly worldwide as the new virus spreads, what is the likelihood of festivals being permitted anywhere by this summer?
My employer just cancelled its AGM, and is stopping all large meetings involving travel until further notice.
Unless the UK is very lucky, I can see a lot of things being cancelled this year...
Am I being too pessimistic?
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GubGub (Al)
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2020, 09:52:39 AM »

I think you are. We have had these things before. Remember Swine Flu? They tend to be winter phenomena and under control if not entirely gone by the summer. It certainly did not disrupt the summer festival schedule. A Foot & Mouth outbreak would be a different story.

I will be very surprised if a vaccine or other treatment has not been developed within weeks and despite the media hysteriathis virus does seem to be nothing more than a mild case of flu except in people with underlying health conditions (though I appreciate flu epidemics can be very dangerous).
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bob_g
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Bob


« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2020, 10:25:27 AM »

Hope so! Though this one is spreading in warm places, itís 20C in Qom.
But itís is more the overreaction by authorities than the actual bug the worries me. Vaccine ready for mass deployment unlikely until autumn, Iíd have thought, unless they skip full testing. The thing that worries me (and authorities) is the death rate; 5-50 times higher than for influenza (0.5%-2.5% vs 0.05%-0.1%). That will let them justify drastic action if it spreads in the UK before spring...
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Nick Reg
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2020, 12:45:22 PM »

Werent there some concerns about the festival a few years ago over foot and mouth?
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Mark
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2020, 01:52:15 PM »


Hope so! Though this one is spreading in warm places, itís 20C in Qom.
But itís is more the overreaction by authorities than the actual bug the worries me. Vaccine ready for mass deployment unlikely until autumn, Iíd have thought, unless they skip full testing. The thing that worries me (and authorities) is the death rate; 5-50 times higher than for influenza (0.5%-2.5% vs 0.05%-0.1%). That will let them justify drastic action if it spreads in the UK before spring...


Your influenza mortality rates are off. You have used typical mortality rates for Europe and North America to compare against global mortality rates for the Coronavirus. Global mortality rates for H1N1 or H3N2 type A influenzas (the usual strains that cause pandemics) can be as high as 4.5 % in a bad year.

SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) had a mortality rate of around 15%.
MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) had a mortality rate of nearly 35%
and
H5N1 (Avian influenza) has had a mortality rate of close to 65%

Covid-19 is nasty, but much of the panic is (currently) unwarranted and driven by the morons that make up our press corps.
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PhilipK
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2020, 02:16:29 PM »

From this week's Private Eye:



* Corona.jpg (325.95 KB, 1800x1424 - viewed 1161 times.)
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Philip
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2020, 05:31:13 PM »

There's a third stat to add to that... at current fatality rates, Covid-19 is about ten times more deadly than seasonal flu.

Nobody should panic, but nobody should try and downplay the real risks either. If its spread isn't checked, Covid-19 could kill millions; the worst-case assumption of a 60% global infection rate with a 1% fatality rate would equate to 45 million deaths.
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davidmjs
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2020, 05:37:47 PM »


There's a third stat to add to that... at current fatality rates, Covid-19 is about ten times more deadly than seasonal flu.

Nobody should panic, but nobody should try and downplay the real risks either. If its spread isn't checked, Covid-19 could kill millions; the worst-case assumption of a 60% global infection rate with a 1% fatality rate would equate to 45 million deaths.


That made me laugh out loud.  Nobody should panic, but....you then proceed to state a scenario which is nothing but pure panic.
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Dubai Danny
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2020, 06:35:55 PM »

Not panic, just basic maths. No, we're *not* all about to die, but Covid-19 *is* more serious than seasonal flu.

The Private Eye stats downplay the risks in an arguably misleading manner. Unfortunately, much as I love the Eye, it's been misleading on medical issues before, perhaps most infamously in its support of Andrew Wakefield.
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Mark
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2020, 09:33:52 PM »


There's a third stat to add to that... at current fatality rates, Covid-19 is about ten times more deadly than seasonal flu.

Nobody should panic, but nobody should try and downplay the real risks either. If its spread isn't checked, Covid-19 could kill millions; the worst-case assumption of a 60% global infection rate with a 1% fatality rate would equate to 45 million deaths.


Not so.

The "seasonal flu" we talk of is usually caused by genetically very similar strains either of A(H1N1) or A(H3N2) influenza virus strains. Other strains do intermittantly cause concern, but they are nearly always from the "Type A" viruses. The global mortality rates from these vary from year to year, but just because we haven't had a bad pandemic of a virulent strain for many decades does not mean that 'flu is less potent than Covid-19.

The A(H2N2) virus that swept the world in 1957/1958 is officially recorded as having killed around a million, but is now being re-evaluated and may have killed 4 or 5 million. Similarly, the 1918/20 Pandemic of A(H1N1) infected around 1/3rd of the global population (roughly 1.6bn) and killed up to 100 million.
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"And we should consider every day lost on which we have not danced at least once. And we should call every truth false which was not accompanied by at least one laugh." Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
mickf
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« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2020, 12:51:31 PM »

So, when do the apes start running the planet?
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davidmjs
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« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2020, 12:52:09 PM »


So, when do the apes start running the planet?


1979.  Haven't you noticed?
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mickf
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« Reply #12 on: February 29, 2020, 12:53:00 PM »



So, when do the apes start running the planet?


1979. †Haven't you noticed?

 Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Jim
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« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2020, 10:07:07 AM »



So, when do the apes start running the planet?


1979. †Haven't you noticed?



This👏
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2020, 12:16:06 PM »

Iím in a very good position to answer the question of whether cropredy festival will be on.
Despite all the mirth on here I will state some facts.
Given that as a country we have reacted to the threat too late and are still importing the virus from abroad rather than shutting boarders it is worth remembering that whilst many people who catch the virus will just be ill and recover(and we as a country are now in the position of having cases where the virus has been caught in this country rather than abroad) there are many people
Over 60ís
Diabetics such as myself
People with heart complaints

The above have a 7% chance of dying if they catch the disease.

The information today for anyone in those categories is to
1) avoid large gatherings
2) do not use public transport
3) do not visit supermarkets(shop online)
4) do not go to doctors surgeries for routine visits and cancel appointments.

Obviously no need to worry Shocked

Regards cropredy festival
If the outbreak takes hold and it will just like Italy and France it could take months for things to return to normal

Given the older demographic of cropredy attendees I can imagine a much lower attendance if the festival is on and the situation stabalised and by that point cases are falling or more probable a vaccination is found by that point.

If neither scenario occurs cropredy festival will be off along with every outdoor festival and sporting event.

August is still a long way off and Iíd guess (and itís only a guess) that a vaccine will be found before then

Saying that ticket sales are bound to be hit if the government passes the civil contingencies act in the next couple of weeks as nobody would be buying tickets for events that may not take place until much nearer the time when the situation will be a lot clearer.

You could of course be in denial like Boris Johnson who it seems is keen to put the interest of the financial institutions before the general health of the population

Whilst other countries cancel events,shut borders,cancel flights from affected areas and shut down public transport,Boris continues to allow people to return from affected areas to all parts of the U.K. and offers the fantastic advise to wash your hands.. Roll Eyes
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Dubai Danny
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2020, 07:09:41 PM »


 just because we haven't had a bad pandemic of a virulent strain for many decades does not mean that 'flu is less potent than Covid-19


All reputable statistics currently have Covid-19's fatality rate at around ten times that of seasonal flu. Obviously it's a fluid situation and that could go up or down, but the suggestion in some quarters that Covid-19 is "no worse" than seasonal flu is at best statistically wrong, and at worst deliberately misleading.
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Wandering Steve
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« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2020, 08:04:26 PM »

As an insulin dependant il put this to bed...

If I catch flu it is harmful but I can recover virtue of intravenous antibiotics which can combat it.
If I catch Coronavirus it turns to pneumonia and shuts down the lungs and having a weakened immune system I have a 7% chance of dying..
This is because no antibiotics work against Coronavirus.

This is why there is no comparison between flu and Coronavirus.

As a diabetic there is a big campaign each year to have the flu jab
There is no campaign for a Coronavirus jab because there isnít one!!
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davidmjs
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« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2020, 08:17:29 PM »

I think this thread proves very clearly why the human race seems so determined to destroy itself and its home.  Knowledge is, it seems, no longer power.  We almost seem to delight in our ignorance...and truth no longer matters.  Stop the world, I'm getting off.

Just in case anyone is remotely interested...antibiotics do not cure flu (of any kind).  Ffs.
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Bridgwit (Bridget)
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« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2020, 09:58:33 PM »

Well, Iím worried about it. My husband has COPD (chronic lung disease) and was seriously ill with pneumonia 2 years ago which had left him weakened and more susceptible to viruses and infections.

We have Coronavirus in Wales, in Swansea which is 40 miles away, but the individual was out on the town a few days before he was isolated. I work with people who commute from Swansea so if they were out in Salubrious Place last Saturday they could have caught it, which means I could catch it and pass it on to Mike. Farfetched? Yes, of course it is, until it happens. Then itís serious. No government wants to overreact, but I believe we need to stop flights from certain places now - for example China, South Korea, Italy, Iran for a start. The situation should be reviewed daily - hourly.

If festivals are cancelled, so be it. If the Olympics is canceled, so be it. This isnít a movie, itís real.
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Amethyst (Jenny)
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« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2020, 11:22:29 PM »

Thinking of you and yours Bridget.

Hope you will all, be ok xx
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